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Can AI predict someone's breakup? - Thomas Hofweber

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TEDEd Animation

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A couple has been considering getting engaged, but they’re worried about divorce statistics. An AI-based model was just released that can predict your likelihood of divorce with 95% accuracy. The only catch is the model doesn’t offer any reasons for its results. So, should they decide whether or not to get married based on this AI’s prediction? Thomas Hofweber explores AI’s transparency problem.

Assuming the AI is accurate in its prediction, does it matter why it is accurate? For example, does it matter that it is accurate since it is responsive to a deep tension in your relationship? Or that it is accurate, since its prediction is like a self-fulfilling prophecy: those who get the prediction of a break-up do in fact break up because it was reliably predicted. In both cases the prediction is accurate, but what does this show for the significance of the accuracy of the prediction rather than for the reason behind the prediction?

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TED-Ed Animations feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TED-Ed Animation? Nominate yourself here »

Meet The Creators

  • Educator Thomas Hofweber
  • Director Hannah Lau-Walker
  • Narrator Addison Anderson
  • Composer Phil Brookes
  • Sound Designer Phil Brookes
  • Director of Production Gerta Xhelo
  • Produced by Abdallah Ewis
  • Editorial Director Alex Rosenthal
  • Editorial Producer Dan Kwartler
  • Fact-Checker Charles Wallace

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