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Can you solve the fantasy election riddle? - Dennis E. Shasha

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TEDEd Animation

Let’s Begin…

After much debate, the realm has decided dragon jousting may not be the best way to choose its leaders, and has begun transitioning to democracy. Your company was hired to survey the citizens of the land and predict which candidate will win. There’s a lot riding on this: if you get it wrong, heads— well, your head— will quite literally roll. Can you predict the winner? Dennis Shasha shows how.

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Suppose there are three candidates A, B, C. You poll 800 people with the following rule: each person P flips a fair coin three times. If the coin comes up heads all three times, then P should vote for A. If the coin comes up tails all three times, then P should vote for B. Otherwise P should vote for the candidate P prefers. If 25% of the people like A and 40% like B and 35% like C, approximately what poll score will C receive?

About TED-Ed Animations

TED-Ed Animations feature the words and ideas of educators brought to life by professional animators. Are you an educator or animator interested in creating a TED-Ed Animation? Nominate yourself here »

Meet The Creators

  • Educator Dennis E. Shasha
  • Director Igor Coric, Artrake Studio
  • Narrator Addison Anderson
  • Director of Production Gerta Xhelo
  • Editorial Director Alex Rosenthal
  • Producer Bethany Cutmore-Scott
  • Script Editor Alex Gendler
  • Fact-Checker Eden Girma

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